AGP Executive Report

Labour Market Watch: Iceland’s unemployment edged down in June, with the seasonally adjusted jobless rate rising to 5.0% (up year-on-year) but falling versus May, while the non-adjusted rate was 3.9% and the employment rate climbed to 77.9%, according to Statistics Iceland. Housing & Demographics: A new survey suggests rental demand is growing fast among young adults, with 45% of Icelanders aged 18–24 renting this year versus 34% a year earlier, as buying conditions stay tough. Air Travel & Operations: Icelandair reported a second-quarter loss as fuel costs pushed unit costs up 15%, and the airline said it will phase out Boeing 757 aircraft sooner; separately, Keflavík’s self-service border kiosks remain offline after unreliable testing, with a gradual rollout planned from mid-August. EU/Defence Finance: The EU’s €90bn Ukraine aid loan framework is extended to the UK, letting Kyiv buy defence-critical products from companies in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, alongside existing EFTA coverage including Iceland. Business Expansion: Coinbase is preparing to bring its “Everything Exchange” strategy to Canada, aiming to add tokenized stocks and broader financial services beyond crypto trading.

AI & Finance: Helsinki AI infrastructure firm Verda (formerly DataCrunch) secured a €22m, four-year NIB loan under InvestEU, months after raising €102.5m, to expand its renewable-powered AI cloud and high-performance computing access. EU Politics: Iceland’s EU referendum campaign ramps up with early voting set to start 27 July ahead of the 29 August vote, while France’s foreign minister says Iceland has “nothing to lose” in EU talks. Bilateral Trade & Security: Iceland and France signed a joint declaration to deepen cooperation across defence, trade, investment, climate action and science. Tourism Demand: Iceland saw a 21% year-on-year drop in US visitor numbers in June, while Icelandair reported 545,000 passengers in June (down 1%) with outbound and domestic growth offsetting weaker inbound demand. Public Safety & Operations: The Icelandic Coast Guard reported July helicopter callouts up about 40% versus last year, driven by a busy mix of medical evacuations, accidents and land searches. Corporate Governance: Amaroq announced board and chairman transition ahead of expected London listing admission no earlier than 31 July 2026.

EU Membership Referendum: Early voting for Iceland’s EU talks referendum opens 27 July ahead of the 29 August vote, with around 50 polling sites in Iceland and about 130 overseas, and the National Electoral Commission expecting early voting to account for roughly 15–20% of ballots. Bilateral Trade & Security: Iceland and France signed a joint declaration to deepen cooperation across defence, trade, investment, climate action and science during French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot’s first working visit to Iceland in over two decades. Greenland Minerals Reality Check: A new Morningstar DBRS commentary argues Greenland’s “mineral treasure chest” reputation is overstated, saying proven, economically viable deposits are scarce and that strategic value to the US is more about military and trade routes than metals. Coast Guard Operations: Iceland’s Coast Guard reported helicopter callouts up about 40% in July so far versus last year, driven by a busy mix of medical evacuations, accidents and land searches. Tourism Demand: New figures show US visitor numbers to Iceland fell about 21% in June year-on-year, with industry pointing to possible demand softening and timing effects around the solar eclipse and other global events. Corporate Governance: Amaroq announced a chairman transition and board changes, with the updates effective around late July pending admission to London’s main market. Conservation & Economy: US oystercatcher restoration efforts highlighted by new banding work show how long-term funding and coastal partnerships are helping the bird population rebound.

EU Membership Talks: France’s foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot says Iceland has “nothing to lose” by restarting EU negotiations ahead of an Aug. 29 referendum, pointing to EU backing for Denmark and Greenland as a security signal. Trade & Sanctions: Barrot also urged the EU to end imports of products from illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, framing it as trade that undermines peace efforts. Housing Market: A new Housing and Construction Authority survey finds more young Icelanders are renting: 29% of adults now rent (up from 28%), with the 18–24 group’s share living with parents falling sharply. Aviation & Travel: Airport bosses warn EU border checks are tripling waiting times for some UK travellers under the Entry/Exit System, with averages rising from about 7 to 20 minutes at Rome Fiumicino. Energy & Industry: GE Aerospace says it has completed the first high-altitude, high-voltage hybrid-electric flight above 30,000 feet using a modified Saab 340 testbed, with a transatlantic crossing via Nuuk and Reykjavik. Business Tech/Markets: Uniswap reports over $15bn in weekly protocol volume, citing new chain integrations and governance moves. Sports & Economy: Cambridge research estimates the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup could add about 590,000 tonnes of emissions, with fan travel driving most of the footprint.

EU Membership Talks: France’s foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot told Iceland it has “nothing to lose” in restarting EU accession talks ahead of an 29 August referendum, arguing EU backing matters for security and for disputes such as Greenland. Diplomacy & Trade: Barrot also urged the EU to end imports of products from illegal Israeli settlements, linking the stance to support for a two-state solution. Housing Market: A new Housing and Construction Authority survey says more young Icelanders are moving into rentals: 29% of adults now rent (up from 28%), with nearly half of 18–24-year-olds renting and fewer living with parents. Public Safety: Reykjavík police report a busy stretch, including a serious stabbing with two suspects held and another weapons-and-drugs arrest after an assault outside a nightclub. Business & Finance: Iceland’s “first billionaire” Thor Björgólfsson has shifted tax residency from Britain to Italy, citing the end of the UK non-dom regime and warning of an “exodus” of wealthy entrepreneurs. EU Carbon Policy: The European Commission proposed changes to the EU Emissions Trading System that would slow emissions cuts from 2031, with critics warning it could weaken climate targets.

Antimicrobial Resistance Watch: Iceland’s antibiotic-resistant E. coli detections have more than tripled over a decade, reaching 650 cases in 2025, with bloodstream resistance also doubling—linked mainly to travel-related spread. Trade & Standards: The EVFTA is boosting Vietnam-Nordic trade, but new EU rules on emissions, deforestation, packaging, product safety and digital product info are raising the bar for exporters. EU Aviation Emissions: The EU has backed an extension of Iceland’s aviation emissions exemption, a move that matters for airline costs and competitiveness. Tourism Demand Shift: Warm, dry weather is driving a surge in South Iceland visitors, with some campsites and facilities hitting capacity fast. Local Nature & Conservation: A protected long-eared owl brood has been recorded near Breiðholt in Reykjavík, offering a rare look at breeding success while nest details are withheld to protect the birds. Creative Industry & AI: Icelandic writers report unsolicited agent-style emails that reference their books in detail, raising concerns about copyrighted works being used in AI systems without permission. Weather Outlook: Meteorologists say a high-pressure system keeps conditions mostly dry and warmer in the east while the west sees intermittent rain, with change expected midweek.

Antimicrobial Resistance: Iceland’s latest infectious disease report says multidrug-resistant E. coli and related bacteria detections have more than tripled over a decade, reaching 650 cases in 2025, with bloodstream resistance rising from 7% to 14%—and specialists point to travel as a key source. Tourism & Local Economy: South Iceland campsites and facilities are seeing a domestic-travel surge as warm, dry weather in the east and south pulls visitors away from wetter areas; one Kirkjubæjarklaustur pool briefly capped entry after about 900 visitors in a day. Weather & Business Impact: Reykjavík recorded 65.6mm of rain in the first half of July—its wettest such period on record—while the east stayed much drier, underlining how uneven conditions can swing demand and operations. EU Membership Debate (Fisheries): A legal expert weighs in on whether Iceland could secure exemptions from the EU Common Fisheries Policy, keeping the fisheries question central to EU accession talks. Creative Industries: Icelandic writers report unsolicited emails from foreign literary agents that appear to reference specific books, raising concerns about copyrighted works being used in AI systems. Cruise Sector: Three cruise ships brought more than 3,500 visitors to Caithness, highlighting continued momentum in port activity and visitor spending.

Iceland’s EU membership debate: A legal expert says Iceland may be able to negotiate fisheries exemptions under EU rules, challenging the claim that Common Fisheries Policy terms are “entirely non-negotiable.” Local weather and costs: Reykjavík logged 65.6mm of rain in the first half of July—its wettest such period on record—while Akureyri stayed far drier, a split that can hit travel, construction and daily operations. Tourism and business: Windstar’s Star Pride kicked off summer cruises from Reykjavík, adding seven-night island-hopping itineraries and a later repositioning to Greenland. Culture meets commerce: Westman Islands menswear brand Kölski is building bespoke suits around local wool, turning regional fishing-era know-how into a niche fashion business. Creative industry: Icelandic authors report unsolicited emails from agents that appear to reference their books in detail, raising fears copyrighted works may have been used in AI systems without permission. Education policy: A teachers’ union figure criticises Iceland’s push to prioritise maths materials, arguing weak reading comprehension and Icelandic-language transmission should come first.

Tourism & Travel: Windstar’s Star Pride has kicked off summer cruises from Reykjavík, with seven-night island-hopping itineraries through late August and a later repositioning voyage to Greenland and Canada/New England. Weather & Risk: Reykjavík recorded 65.6mm of rain in the first half of July—its wettest such period on record—while conditions stayed much drier in the north. EU & Fisheries: A legal expert says Iceland could potentially negotiate permanent fisheries exemptions under an EU framework, keeping the Common Fisheries Policy debate central to accession talks. Local Economy & Business: Grindavík has set up four specialist working groups to guide a risk-based recovery plan, aiming to support housing, education, safety, and evacuation/return procedures. Culture & Media: Glassriver and Germany’s Network Movie are co-developing Áróra, an investigative TV drama series set across Iceland and London. AI & IP: Icelandic authors report unsolicited agent-style emails that raise fears copyrighted books may have been used in AI systems without permission. Tech & Markets: Direct flights from China to Iceland could boost arrivals beyond the summer peak, with Air China preparing to launch scheduled services.

Aviation Policy: The European Commission and Iceland have agreed in principle to extend Iceland’s EU ETS aviation emissions exemption by three years, keeping the deal in place until 2030, with the change still needing EU member-state and Parliament approval. Tourism & Connectivity: Iceland’s travel industry is watching a potential boost from direct flights from China, with Air China preparing scheduled services that could spread arrivals beyond the summer peak and potentially double visitor numbers. Local Recovery: Grindavík has set up four specialist risk-assessment working groups—covering town safety, education/housing/return, and evacuation/return procedures—to guide rebuilding and help residents come back. Business & Media: Glassriver and Germany’s Network Movie are co-producing “Áróra,” an investigative drama series set across Iceland and London, adapted from Lilja Sigurðardóttir’s crime novels. Crypto Regulation: BitPay says it has received MiCA authorization via its Dutch unit, enabling regulated crypto payments and stablecoin services across the EU. EU Labour Rules: The EU is moving toward final approval of a reform that would shift unemployment benefits for many cross-border workers to the country of employment rather than residence. EU Trade: The FIT Partnership meeting in Auckland is pushing to reduce trade barriers and uncertainty as potential higher US tariffs loom. Sports/Travel Demand: “The Odyssey” is driving “set-jetting” interest, with travel platforms expecting film-inspired destination demand to rise.

Trade & tariffs: New Zealand’s Trade Minister Todd McClay used the Future of Investment and Trade (FIT) Partnership meeting in Auckland to warn that higher US tariffs are “not unexpected,” arguing tariffs raise costs and barriers for exporters, including small economies like Iceland. EU climate policy: The European Commission and Iceland agreed in principle to extend Iceland’s EU ETS aviation emissions exemption by three years, keeping it until 2030, as part of a wider ETS overhaul aimed at protecting industrial competitiveness. Tourism & air links: Iceland’s tourism industry expects Air China’s planned direct flights from China to lift year-round arrivals (especially winter and shoulder seasons), while regulators should watch compliance by foreign tour operators. Local recovery: Grindavík has set up four specialist risk-assessment working groups covering town safety, education, housing/return, and evacuation procedures to support rebuilding and displaced residents’ return. Business & media: Glassriver and Germany’s Network Movie are co-developing Áróra, an investigative TV drama series based on Lilja Sigurðardóttir’s bestselling crime novels, set across Iceland and London. Crypto regulation: BitPay won EU-wide MiCA authorization via its Dutch unit, enabling regulated crypto payments and stablecoin services across the bloc. EU labour rules: EU lawmakers backed a reform shifting unemployment benefit responsibility from the country of residence to the country of employment for many cross-border workers. Tech & security: Researchers reported TuxBot v3 Evolution, an LLM-assisted IoT botnet framework targeting exposed Linux devices for distributed denial-of-service attacks.

Trade & Investment: New Zealand Trade Minister Todd McClay says the FIT Partnership has expanded to 19 countries after Korea, Peru and Thailand joined in Auckland, aiming to cut barriers and support exporters through practical, rules-based trade work. EU Policy: The European Commission is set to propose an overhaul of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which already covers power, industry, airlines and shipping—and includes Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. Crypto Regulation: Coinbase and Ripple have secured EU-wide MiCA access via Luxembourg as Binance retreats, with stablecoin competition shifting toward regulated players. Iceland Business & Economy: Iceland’s Elliðaár salmon run hit a new record pace, with nearly 600 salmon passing the counter in 12 hours, lifting hopes for a strong season. Tech & Consumer Markets: Realme confirms it will exit China to focus on global markets, while OnePlus is reported to be winding down outside China. Security: Researchers uncovered TuxBot v3 Evolution, an LLM-assisted IoT botnet targeting exposed Linux devices for DDoS attacks.

Volcanic Risk Watch: Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula still looks primed for more—scientists say magma is continuing to build beneath Svartsengi, with another intrusion (and possibly an eruption) the most likely scenario. Energy & Climate: A fresh look at Iceland’s geothermal model highlights how ~90% of homes are heated with geothermal energy and electricity is almost entirely renewable—an exportable blueprint for cleaner power. Crypto Regulation: MiCA’s July 1 rollout is reshaping Europe’s market: Coinbase and Ripple have secured Luxembourg authorisations, while Binance retreats, opening room for licensed platforms across Iceland and the EEA. Whaling Pressure: Iceland’s whaling season is drawing international scrutiny—EFTA’s surveillance authority says it received 700+ enquiries but has no EEA mandate over whale welfare. Tech Market Signals: Reports say Oppo is restructuring and OnePlus is winding down in North America and Europe, with realme also being scaled back—potential knock-on effects for Iceland-linked Nordic sales. Local Economy & Food: Reykjavík’s Elliðaár saw a record salmon run, with nearly 600 salmon passing in 12 hours, boosting hopes for a strong fishing season. Mining: Amaroq released new Nalunaq underground drilling results in Greenland, reinforcing confidence in near- and medium-term production.

Smartphones Reshuffle: OnePlus is reportedly preparing to wind down operations in the US and Europe as early as this week, with a broader exit from overseas markets—including India—expected by 2027, as parent Oppo restructures and shifts focus toward Central Europe and Nordic sales for Realme (including Iceland). Child Safety Online: Iceland’s Ministry of Education and Children has launched a consultation on banning social media for kids under 15, framed as a child protection measure with no criminal penalties. Climate & Travel Costs: A Cambridge study says “mega-event” emissions are driven mainly by spectator travel, arguing organisers should reward lower-carbon transport with ticket discounts. Tourism Demand Spike: New data shows UK travellers are chasing the 12 August total solar eclipse, with flight searches for Reykjavik up sharply. Mining Update: Amaroq reported high-grade underground drilling results at Greenland’s Nalunaq gold mine, reinforcing confidence in near- and medium-term production. Trade & Investment: Iceland is among members backing New Zealand’s FIT Partnership ministerial meeting in Auckland, aimed at reducing barriers and making cross-border trade easier.

Smartphone shake-up: Oppo plans to wind down OnePlus operations in the US and Europe as early as this week, with a broader global exit expected by 2027; Oppo says it will lean harder into Central Europe and push Realme in the Nordics, including Iceland. Construction & housing: Iceland’s construction and civil engineering job market is cooling, with unemployment near 1,200 at end-June and a contractor blaming stalled residential projects, while a workers’ group disputes claims about skilled trades being replaced. Child protection rules: Iceland’s education ministry proposes a social media minimum age of 15, starting from the year a child turns 15, with no criminal penalties—aimed at reducing risks from harmful content and compulsive use. Local safety policy: Reykjavík pools introduce adult-only access to outdoor changing rooms unless minors are accompanied, citing safety gaps where staff supervision isn’t constant. EU politics: Iceland’s EU accession talks referendum on Aug. 29 is framed by opponents as a potential sovereignty risk, arguing the “No” vote may not end EU pressure. Business & finance: Greenland Mines reports a first SEC S-K 1300-compliant technical summary for Skaergaard, boosting indicated palladium-equivalent resources by 31%. Payments: MOIN becomes the first Korean or Japanese firm to secure an EU electronic money institution license, enabling cross-EEA operations including Iceland.

EU Financial Regulation & Fintech: MOIN says it has become the first Korean or Japanese firm to secure an EU Electronic Money Institution license, giving it a “European passport” to operate across the EEA (including Iceland) for cross-border payments and FX, with potential stablecoin-related expansion under MiCA. Iceland Business & Policy: Iceland’s police debate online alcohol enforcement after a court ruling against retailer Smáríkið, with calls to halt illegal sales immediately while lawmakers consider changes to ÁTVR’s monopoly. Education & Labour: Eurostat data shows Iceland has Europe’s highest upper secondary school dropout rate (16.7% in 2025), with researchers pointing to labour-market pull and flexible pathways that may lead some students to switch or leave early. Immigration & Reform: Iceland received 675 asylum applications in the first half of 2026, with Ukrainians making up 74%, and the government reiterates further immigration reforms including stricter residence rules and border-control measures. Digital Advertising Rules: Google Ads expands its alcohol policy geography (including Iceland) and will broaden gambling/certification requirements across all gambling and games categories. Weather Impact: Heavy rain is forecast for much of Iceland over the next 10 days, with West Iceland and the southern Westfjords most affected. Corporate Update: Nova lifted its FY revenue and EBITDA guidance after its Ofar acquisition, forecasting FY revenue of ISK 19.0–19.4bn and EBITDA of ISK 3.6–3.8bn.